I have recently read the latest book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile. I read his famous The Black Swan a while back while in the field and wrote lots of notes. I never got around to posting those notes since they were quite telegraphic (and often not even electronic!), as they were written in the [...]
Thoughts on Black Swans and Antifragility
December 26th, 2012 · 2 Comments
Tags: science · Statistics
On Global State Shifts
July 5th, 2012 · No Comments
This is a edited version of a post I sent out to the E-ANTH listserv in response to a debate over a recent paper in Nature and the response to it on the website “Clear Science,” written by Todd Meyers. In this debate, it was suggested that the Barnosky paper is the latest iteration of [...]
Tags: Climate Change · Human Ecology
Three Questions About Norms
March 3rd, 2012 · 1 Comment
Well, it certainly has been a while since I’ve written anything here. Life has gotten busy with new projects, new responsibilities, etc. Yesterday, I participated in a workshop on campus sponsored by the Woods Institute for the Environment, the Young Environmental Scholars Conference. I was asked to stand-in for a faculty member who had to [...]
Tags: Anthropology · Conservation · Demography · Human Ecology · Infectious Disease · Teaching
Guess What: Food Prices Still Near All-Time Highs
July 14th, 2011 · 1 Comment
The FAO Food Price Index (FPI) remains at near record-highs, and this at a time when record droughts and calamitous famine threaten the Horn of Africa. Using the latest data from the FAO FPI page, I plot here the FPI time series from 1990-2011. World food prices are high and have remained so since the [...]
Tags: Biofuels · Diet & Nutrition · Human Ecology
Nicholas Wade on Science and Anthropology
December 11th, 2010 · 1 Comment
Nicholas Wade, who normally writes really terrific stuff on science in the New York Times, has a brief piece on our Anthropology fracas du jour. It’s good to see an expression of concern for the place of science in anthropology in such a prominent place and by such an important science writer. I just wish [...]
Tags: Anthropology · Human Ecology · Teaching
Uncertainty and Fat Tails
May 5th, 2009 · 4 Comments
A major challenge in science writing is how to effectively communicate real, scientific uncertainty. Sometimes we just don’t know have enough information to make accurate predictions. This is particularly problematic in the case of rare events in which the potential range of outcomes is highly variable. Two topics that are close to my heart come [...]
Tags: Human Ecology · Infectious Disease · Statistics
On Journal Impact Factors
February 16th, 2009 · 3 Comments
How do we evaluate the quality of published work? This has become an issue for me recently for one general and two more specific reasons. The general reason is that as one approaches one’s tenure decision, one tends to think about the impact of one’s oeuvre. The specific reasons are, first, I have a paper that [...]
Tags: science
More on Science in the Obama Times
January 27th, 2009 · No Comments
As a follow-up to my post on science and the Obama Inaugural, I wanted to note a terrific essay by Dennis Overbye on the civic virtues of science in the New York Times. He argues that virtue emerges from the process of science: “Science is not a monument of received Truth but something that people do to look for truth.” [...]
Tags: Uncategorized
Unusual Editorial
July 29th, 2008 · No Comments
This is something you don’t typically see in the editorial pages of the New York Times, viz., advocacy for reinstating US Air Force investigations of unidentified flying objects. Pope has a point; closed-mind policies are probably never a good idea. This is not to say that we have little green men coming to cut crop [...]
Tags: Uncategorized